GOP insiders: Pence would beat Clinton - Politico

In the aftermath of Mike Pence's debate performance, swing-state Republicans wish they could flip the ticket.

GOP members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of battleground-state activists, strategists and operatives — think Pence, the party's vice-presidential nominee, would be more likely to defeat Hillary Clinton than the standard-bearer, Donald Trump.

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Nearly two-thirds of GOP insiders, 66 percent, said Pence would beat Clinton in their states. But only a 44-percent minority of GOP insiders say Trump would defeat Clinton in their state if the election were held today — fewer than the slightly more than half that picked Trump in recent weeks as he closed the gap with Clinton in the polls.

The hypothetical Clinton-Pence match-up question comes during a week in which Trump has sagged in the polls following a poor performance in his first debate with Clinton.

"Right now, Donald Trump is the only Republican in the United States whom Hillary Clinton can defeat," said a North Carolina Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. "Trump is the best candidate on the ballot for Democrats in 2016."

"The creepy clown walking around Green Bay would beat Hillary Clinton in 30 states," a Nevada Republican added. "Fortunately for Hillary, she is running against Donald Trump."

Pence, meanwhile, has largely earned plaudits from Republicans for a mostly calm, coherent defense of his conservative beliefs — if not a defense of Trump — in his debate with Tim Kaine this week.

Besides, some Republicans said, Clinton is a weak candidate, with a majority of voters viewing the former secretary of state unfavorably.

"No one likes Hillary Clinton, but many do not feel that Donald Trump is a viable alternative," said a Michigan Republican. "Pence, however, is likable, confident, poised and articulate. Just about any other GOP nominee would have beat Hillary Clinton by an unprecedented number."

"He's calm. Reserved. He inspires confidence. He's a conservative Christian, truthful and a gentleman," an Iowa Republican added. "He'd mop the floor with her."

Democratic insiders, however, are less convinced Pence would win: Only 25 percent think Pence would win their state. Still, that's far more than the only 7 percent who believe Trump would win their state if the election were held today.

Most Democrats said Pence's conservative views on social issues would hurt him in their states.

"That debate exposed none of Pence's 1857-era views towards the LGBT community, or that he's a cigarette-truther," said a Florida Democrat, pointing to Pence's decades-old statements that the dangers of tobacco products were exaggerated. "A campaign would."

"Mike Pence has some extreme views that haven't gotten much air time," a Wisconsin Democrat added, "and I don't believe they would play well in a state that elected Tammy Baldwin. On the other hand, we did elect Scott Walker, but his approval ratings are dismal."

But there are some Democrats who think Clinton could be vulnerable against Pence.

"I think the election comes down to turnout, and Hillary will get anti-Trump voters who would not be motivated to turn out against Pence," a North Carolina Democrat said.

Pence's improved standing in this hypothetical matchup doesn't mean any non-Trump Republican would beat Clinton. Asked who would win between Clinton and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the GOP delegate runner-up, 92 percent of Democrats and even 76 percent of Republicans pick Clinton.

Said an Iowa Republican who predicted Trump and Pence would beat Clinton: "Ted Cruz is a right-wing nut job who bends with the political winds all while assuring he is pure. Not so."

A Pennsylvania Republican predicted Cruz's margin of loss would be larger than Trump's: "While Clinton has lots of weaknesses, Ted Cruz simply would not translate to Pennsylvania. He would probably lose bigger than Trump here."

"If Cruz is going to have a future beyond Texas, he is going to have to reinvent himself politically," a New Hampshire Republican added. "Don't count him out: Cruz is such a phony, he is completely capable of adopting a new political persona."

Insiders were also asked to evaluate the Democratic runner-up's chances: For months, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) pointed to polls showing him running ahead of Clinton in matchups with Trump.

But insiders are mixed: 76 percent of Democrats think Sanders would win their state in a race against Trump, but 63 percent of Republicans say Trump would win.

"Bernie Sanders is, as we'd say in Iowa, crazy as a rabid raccoon," a Republican there said. "His policies of redistribution of wealth would strike at the heart of Iowa's hard work ethic. He would lose miserably."

That wasn't a unanimous opinion, however. Another Iowa Republican said: "This is a change election. Bernie represents more change than Trump."

And Republicans in other states said Sanders could expand the electorate in ways Clinton couldn't.

"Bernie would beat Trump like a drum in Virginia," said a Republican there, citing "college turnout through the roof."

Insiders: The Trump tax story is mostly baked in.

The New York Times' publication of three pages of Trump's state-tax returns from 20 years ago raised the still-not-denied suggestion that Trump avoided paying federal income taxes for a number of years.

But insiders are doubtful the bombshell disclosure will hurt the GOP candidate to a significant degree: Asked how damaging the story will be for Trump, majorities in both parties said the revelation would be "only somewhat damaging."

Fifty-one percent of Democratic insiders and 64 percent of GOP insiders said the story would only damage Trump "somewhat." Nearly half of Democrats, 45 percent, said the story would be "extremely damaging" — but only 14 percent of Republicans agreed. Twenty-one percent of Republicans and 4 percent of Democrats said the story won't be damaging at all.

Some Republicans said they thought the Times and other media outlets over-hyped the significance of the story — and that voters will understand a candidate working within the law to avoid paying income taxes.

"This is another instance of the mainstream media overplaying their hand against Trump," a Pennsylvania Republican said. "Let's face it: Most Americans don't want to pay taxes and try to figure out how to pay as little as possible. It's only somewhat damaging because the media will continually harp on it."

"Consider the source," added a New Hampshire Republican, suggesting that GOP voters have little faith in the Times. "Everyone wants to legally pay no income taxes."

A Colorado Republican agreed: "Frankly, all Americans feel overtaxed, and I don't think they will fault him for using the system."

But other Republicans said the issue — and Trump's handling of it — is taking a toll on the Republican as he slides in the polls.

"His argument that it was smart and strategic is not resonating with voters and he needs to shift," a Michigan Republican said. "If he talks about why he didn't have to pay, that his business took a major loss, he might have more success. It would be best for him to just release his tax returns and shut down this whole line of attack."

Added an Iowa Republican: "Nobody likes hearing the rich are paying nothing while they are working hard and paying taxes."

Most Democrats thought the story would hurt Trump among the small sliver of voters still undecided in the race — but predicted it wouldn't dissuade many of his supporters.

"Not releasing his taxes was baked into the numbers, and whether you were for or against Trump, you knew the reason was one of choices offered by Clinton in the first debate," said a Pennsylvania Democrat. "The Trump number is hard, and all this might do is keep some GOP undecided on the sidelines or sticking with Johnson/Weld. Also, the Trump base buys into the media bias against their man, and this was only amplified by the fact it was the New York Times that delivered the news."

"I would say 'extremely damaging,'" an Iowa Democrat added, "but I don't know how you can say anything is extremely damaging to Trump."

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Darwin Jiles Jr., Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Fergus Cullen, Lou D'Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Va n Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.