Donald Trump speaks Saturday night in New Jersey. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
With Breanne Deppisch
THE BIG IDEA: Donald Trump is stuck. The deeper you drill into the crosstabs[1] of our new poll, the clearer it becomes that he will have a very hard time getting more than 46 percent of the popular vote. That would tr anslate into a landslide loss in the Electoral College.
-- On the surface, the Republican nominee is surprisingly close to Hillary Clinton in the Washington Post/ABC News survey[2]. He trails by just 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters nationwide. That happens to be the same size as the margin of error. It is also only a two-point shift[3] in Clinton's direction since our poll on the eve of the first debate, before his attacks[4] on a former Miss Universe, the release of the 2005 video[5] and the emergence of more than a dozen women[6] who have accused him of unwanted sexual advances.
-- These numbers would seem to bolster the notion that Trump is Teflon. But in fact he is in a particularly poor position to expand his support because the voters who currently back a third-party candidate or have not decided who to support are far more critical of him than Clinton. And they've only become more so in recent weeks.
With the help of our in-house pollster Scott Clement, I studied the 14 percent of registered voters who support neither Clinton nor Trump in the four-way poll test. This includes the 6 percent for Gary Johnson and the 3 percent for Jill Stein but also the 3 percent who volunteered to our callers that they are supporting none of the four and the 2 percent who said they have not decided yet.
Among this sub-group, 71 percent are "strongly unfavorable" to Trump versus 46 percent who say the same of Clinton. He comes fairly close to her on honesty (83 percent say Trump is not honest and trustworthy, compared to 78 percent who say the same for Clinton) and on who is best for the economy (35 percent say Trump and 32 percent say Clinton). But there is a big chasm on two questions that tend to be better predictors of vote choice: 77 percent say Trump is not qualified to be president, compared to 44 percent who say Clinton is not. And 86 percent say Trump lacks the temperament to be president, compared to 42 percent who say the same of Clinton.
This 14 percent is crucial because nearly everyone else can no longer be persuaded: 88 percent of Trump supporters and 89 percent of Clinton backers said they will "definitely" support their current preference. More than 1.4 million ballots have already been cast, and a superior Democratic ground game is locking in her advantage.
-- Bigger picture: With the exception of an outlier[7] or two, no poll worth the paper it is printed on has ever had Trump garnering more than 47 percent against Clinton in a head -to-head match-up. A George Washington University poll[8] being released later this morning has Clinton up 8 points[9] among likely voters (47-39). Yesterday's NB C/Wall Street Journal poll[10] had Clinton ahead 10 points in a head-to-head match-up, with Trump at 40 percent[11]. Last week Fox News[12] put Trump down 7 points, with 41 percent. For context, Mitt Romney got 47.2 percent of the popular vote – and 206 electoral votes. John McCain pulled 45.7 percent in 2008 – and 173 electoral votes.
Hillary Clinton arrives for a rally at the Smith Center for the Performing Arts in Las Vegas last week. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)
-- A generic Republican might be handily defeating Clinton, but Trump is not a generic Republican. Clinton's net negative is 14 points (42 percent of likely voters view her favorably and 56 percent see her in an unfavorable light), but Trump's is 25 points (37 percent favorable vs. 62 percent unfavorable). It is truly remarkable that Trump is down only 4 points among likely voters when you consider that the same poll also finds[13]:
- 68 percent believe Trump has made unwanted sexual advances toward women. Just 14 percent say he has not.
- 57 percent said Trump's response to the 2005 "Access Hollywood" video was insincere.
- Only 40 percent agree with Trump that the comments are "locker room talk."
- 57 percent say it's inappropriate for Trump to say that Clinton would be in jail if he were president for her use of a private email server as secretary of state.
- While 55 percent say Trump's treatment of women is a legitimate issue in the campaign, 67 percent say Bill Clinton's treatment of women is not a legitimate issue.
- 52 percent say Clinton does not ha ve strong moral character, but 66 percent say Trump does not.
-- Trump's lack of growth potential helps explain why he's decided to go all-in on mobilizing his own base while trying to suppress[14], intimidate[15] and otherwise deter[16] Democratic voters from participating in the election. His path to victory at this point depends on large swaths of the Obama coalition choosing to stay home…
-- The numbers also demonstrate why Clinton continues to be so cautious. Like a quarterback who is ahead by a few touchdowns at the start of the fourth quarter, she has been running down the clock with a cautious, front-porch-style campaign that leaves little room for unforced errors. The Boston Globe tabulat ed[17] both candidates' travels over past two-and-a-half months, and the numbers are stark: Clinton held 52 events compared with Trump's 88 between Aug. 1 and Oct. 10. President Obama held 74 events and Mitt Romney 76 during the same period in 2012. And over the same period in 2008, Obama held 108 events and John McCain 100. "Clinton, who, like Trump, is deeply unpopular with voters, also risks energizing her opponent's supporters every time she lands in a battleground state for a rally," Michael Levenson notes on today's front page.
The crowd waits for President Obama to campaign for Hillary at a "Get Out the Early Vote" rally in Cleveland on Friday. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
-- Our Electoral College forecast looks even rosier for Clinton than the national popular vote.
-- The high command in Brooklyn is divided about how much Clinton should invest in the non-core battleground states during the final three weeks. From John Wagner, Abby Phillip and Jose A. DelReal[18]: "Clinton and the Democratic Party entered October with twice as much money in the bank as Trump and the Republicans, but some in Clinton's cam p have cautioned against any late moves that could jeopardize a victory in states she appears to have nailed down. The campaign is expected to decide in coming days whether to make a more aggressive play for states such as Georgia, which is being eyed as one of the more promising opportunities for Clinton, and Arizona, where a couple of high-profile surrogates are being deployed this week: Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont on Tuesday and Chelsea Clinton on Wednesday."
"Several states that Trump initially sought to contest, including Colorado and Virginia, have now seemingly slipped out of reach. Clinton was up by 15 points in Virginia, according to a poll released Sunday[19] by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. And Trump has pulled resources from Virginia. Trump's failure to perform in such states, Clinton aides said, will allow the campaign to shift attention even more to North Carolina and Florida — two must-win states for him — to choke his path to 270…"
-- Follow the money. You can judge whether a campaign is serious about winning a state if it invests in TV commercials…
- Clinton is currently on the air in seven states: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio and Iowa.
- Trump's campaign now appears intent on remaining competitive in just four states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
-- Republican operatives on the ground in Ohio tell me that the state, which had been leaning toward Trump, is back to being a true toss-up and maybe leaning toward Clinton. Donald's campaign, making matters worse, publicly attacked[20] the state GOP Chairman Matt Borges over the weekend. Borges is a loyalist to John Kasich, but he has nonetheless done a great deal to help the nominee. Trump "is very disappointed in Matt's duplicity," Trump's Ohio campaign director Robert Paduchik said in an email, accusing Borges of embarking on a "self-promotional media tour with state and national outlets to criticize our party's nominee." Borges's offense? He did n ot defend Trump's behavior toward women when reporters called about it.
-- Another data point that Ohio has tightened: Rob Portman's newest mailer tries to co-opt the Clinton campaign slogan "stronger together." The Republican senator officially broke[21] with Trump the Friday before last.
-- On the early vote, Democrats are outpacing their 2012 early vote performance in Florida and North Carolina BUT are still trailing in Iowa and Ohio. From Politico's Kyle Cheney[22]: Republicans are clinging to narrow leads in the total number of mail-in ballots requested in the Sunshine State and the Tar Heel State. Yet in both states, Clinton is ahead of Obama's pace four years earlier — and the GOP trails Romney's clip. But political scientist Michael McDonald said there are undercurrents that should cause concern for Clinton. Democratic early-vote performance in Midwestern states like Iowa and Ohio appears to be well behind its 2012 pace.
-- Top GOP officials in Arizona are sounding the alarm and telling reporters that Trump is taking the Grand Canyon State for granted. From NBC's Vaughn Hillyard[23]: "The campaign has placed few resources in the state. There are five staffers aiding Trump's bid, paid for by a combination of the campaign, the RNC and the Arizona Republican Party. The campaign has not put up any broadcast TV or radio spots in Arizona, and it has committed just $15,000 for mailers for the remainder of this month and $7,000 for the final week of the campaign. Asked if more funds directly from the campaign and the RNC are wanted and if they have been requested, a state GOP party official (said): 'Of course. We'll take anything.'"
A Peshme rga convoy advances towards Mosul. (AP Photo/Bram Janssen)
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:
-- Iraqi forces have launched the long-awaited offensive to retake Mosul from ISIS, which has occupied the second biggest city in the country as a de facto capital. Our Loveday Morris and Mustafa Salim are on the ground: "The Mosul offensive marks a showdown in the Islamic State's last major stronghold in Iraq and the city that has come to symbolize the group's rise here. The battle for Mosul draws together tens of thousands of Iraqi troops from an array of the country's forces: Kurdish peshmerga soldiers, Sunni tribal fighters, army, police, Shiite militias and elite counterter rorism units. From the sky and on the ground comes close support from the U.S.-led coalition. More than 80,000 troops are involved, including engineers and logistical support. … [And] despite sometimes competing agendas, the various armed forces have united, at least for now, to take back the Islamic State's most prized remaining territory in the country." Opinions are split on just how long and grinding the battle ahead will be, though Iraqi leaders have pledged to have the city back under government control by the end of the year.[24]
Joe Biden in Cleveland (David Dermer/AP)
-- Sneak peek – Joe Biden's final "cancer moonshot" report will outline the hurdles that hinder progress: The vice president will meet privately with President Obama today and then give a speech to cancer researchers. He'll unveil a report that says formidable challenges remain, including a lack of coordination among researchers, an "antiquated" funding culture and unacceptably slow dissemination of important information about new treatments. Laurie McGinley got an advance copy[25]: Biden says incentives that reward scientists for individual success es rather than team efforts that "can lead to new answers and new solutions." He complains that problems recruiting and retaining patients for clinical trials can cause costly delays. And he says it takes too long for cutting-edge treatments developed at the nation's premier cancer centers to reach the community oncologists who treat most patients. Initiatives to address some of the issues are underway, the V.P. writes, but more needs to be done.
San Diego police stand near the pickup truck that landed at Chicano Park after it flew off a ramp to the Coronado Bridge on Saturday and plowed into crowd gathered at a festival below. (Hayne Palmour IV/The San Diego Union-Tribune via AP)
GET SMART FAST:
- A 25-year-old member of the U.S. Navy who killed four people and injured nine more when his pickup truck plummeted 60 feet from a San Diego overpass has been arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol. (Cleve R. Wootson Jr[26].)
- Federal authorities charged three members of a Kansas militia group with plotting a domestic terror attack on a Somali-Muslim community in Garden City. The men, known as the "Crusaders," allegedly hoped to strike after the Nov. 8 election and use bombs similar to the one Timothy McVeigh used in 1995 to kill 168 peopl e in Oklahoma City. (Cleve R. Wootson Jr[27].)
- China launched its longest manned space mission in history this morning, sending two astronauts aboard an orbiting space lab for 30 days. The move is a critical step in China's plan to operate its own space station, which the country hopes to achieve by the year 2022. (Simon Denyer[28])
- The teenage daughter of Olympic sprinter Tyson Gay was fatally shot outside a Kentucky restaurant. Police believe 15-year-old Trinity Gay, also a rising track star, was struck by a stray bullet as two groups of men fired at each other in the parking lot. (CNN[29])
- New England authorities are bracing themselves for the arrival of the opioid epidemic's newest – and most dangerous – killer. Known as carfentanil, the drug is 10,000 times stronger than morphine and is often used as an eleph ant tranquilizer. Police have been warned that even inhaling the drug or absorbing it though a cut can be fatal. (Boston Globe[30])
- Target is yanking its clown masks from shelves until further notice, hoping to curb some of the national hysteria surrounding "creepy clown" sightings. (New York Magazine[31])
- Boko Haram released 21 kidnapped Nigerian schoolgirls to their families. They had been held in captivity for more than two years. (New York Times[32])
- Thailand announced a month-long suspension of "joyful events," temporarily shuttering night clubs, bars and other key sources of revenue as a country notorious for its party scene attempts to mourn the death of its late king. Travelers are advised to continue their plans as usual, but the mandated period of respect will surely dampen the country's tourism scene. (Annie Gowen[33])
- A youth pastor in rural Pennsylvania was arrested after he admitted to impregnating a 15-year-old girl at his church. (Amy B Wang[34])
- New Jersey residents are despondent ove r the rumored death of "Pedals," a black bear known for walking like a human. The fear is that a hunter got to him. Wildlife officials have yet to confirm his death, but the beloved bear has a cult-like following in the Garden State. (Amy B Wang[35])
The charred remains of a GOP field office in North Carolina.
A SCARY MOMENT:
-- North Carolina police are investigating the firebombing and vandalizing of the Republican Party headquarters in Orange County this weekend. Officials say a bottle of flammable liquid was thrown through the front window of the office. The words "Nazi Republicans get out of town or else" and swastika symbols were spray-painted alongside an adjacent building. (Charlotte Observer[36])
- Clinton condemned the violence as "horrific and unacceptable." "Very grateful that everyone is safe," she said in a tweet[37].
- Trump, without evidence, cast blame on Clinton's camp: "Animals representing Hillary Clinton and Dems in North Carolina just firebombed our office in Orange County because we are winning @NCGOP," he tweeted[38].
-- More than 20 cars were vandalized with spray paint outside a Trump rally in Maine this weekend. Officials have not named any suspects. One victim immediately blamed Trump's� �detractors. "There ain't no thinking about it, I know so," he told the Bangor Daily News[39].
-- Employees at the Arizona Republic have been receiving death threats since its editorial board endorsed Clinton. A top executive at the Phoenix paper [40]outlines some of the most disturbing threats -- including a caller that referenced late Republic reporter Don Bolles, who was assassinated by a car bomb in 1976. "To those of you who have said Jesus will judge me, that you hope I burn in hell, that non-Christians should be kept out of our country, I give you my pastor grandfather," Mi-Ai Parrish writes. "He was imprisoned and tortured for being a Christian … Much as my grandfather taught, I also know there are a lot of things worth standing up for."
-- Reporters who cover Trump on the campaign trail say his supporters have become more surly and abusive in the past week, "egged on by a candidate who has made demonizing journalists part of his stump speech." From Paul Farhi[41]: "Some 15,000 Trump supporters showered the small group with prolonged boos and heckling during one Cincinnati rally. Several people approached the press barrier to yell directly at the group and to make obscene gestures … Reporters are now concealing or removing their press credentials when leaving the pen to avoid confrontations with Trump's supporters."
- Politico's Ben Schreckinger: "In the past, when Trump incited the crowd against the press, you could see people smiling and laughing as they were booing. It was like the mood of a crowd at a ballpark. … Now the smiles have disappeared.""
- BuzzFeed's McKay Coppins: "He's trying to convince his followers that reporters are not just unfair or incompetent, but part of so me kind of sinister global conspiracy."
- Chris Cillizza: "Trump is not really running a campaign for president anymore. Instead, he is involved in an extended revenge plot or is simply following the politics of grievance to a natural, unseemly end."[42]
Comedian Amy Schumer (Chris Pizzello/Invision/AP, File )
-- About 200 people booed and walked out of Amy Schumer's comedy show in Tampa last night after she mocked Trump as an "orange, sexual-assaulting, fake-college-starting monster." Some members of the audience said they were turned off when the conversation veered into more political terrain, as Schumer ripped the Republican nominee for allegedly groping women and asked anyone who has been a victim of sexual assault to stand. Dozens did. (Tampa Bay Times' Adam Smith[43])
-- "A toxic election is damaging the seed corn of democracy — young voters[44]," by the Boston Globe's Victoria McGrane: "Interviews with more than three dozen millennials in Raleigh, a voter-rich battleground within a battleground state, revealed a profound sense of anger and alienation about the 2016 election. This bitter campaign … has left younger Americans feeling punched in the gut. 'Basically, Trump is everything wrong with America's culture, and Hillary is everything wrong with our government,' said [first time voter] Janae Petitjean, 19. In 2008, enthusiastic younger people celebrating a moment of social and political change helped usher [Obama] into the White House and turn North Carolina blue, a feat not see n since Jimmy Carter in 1976. [But] as Obama's historic presidency draws to a close, the latest crop of young voters here and across the country is in danger of becoming disillusioned just as it comes of political age. Such searing experiences, especially for new voters, can have lasting effects."
TELLING VOTERS THAT THE ELECTION WILL BE RIGGED IS DANGEROUS, IRRESPONSIBLE AND BAD FOR AMERICA:
-- "He is detaching himself from and delegitimizing the institutions of American political life," Philip Rucker and Robert Costa write in today's paper.
-- Several Republican secretaries of state and election lawyers fret about Trump's insistence that the election will be rigged. From Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns[46] in the New York Times: "Chris Ashby, a Republican election lawyer, said Mr. Trump's attacks on the electoral process … risked creating a fiasco … 'by encouraging his supporters to deputize themselves as amateur poll monitors.' Civil rights groups have begun to express alarm at remarks from Mr. Trump that they see as goading his supporters to intimidate minori ties at the polls. 'It is a major concern that we have this candidate promoting vigilante poll watching,'" said Arturo Vargas."
-- The New Yorker's Ryan Lizza argues that Trump and Breitbart CEO Stephen Bannon seem less interested in winning and more interested in "creating a platform for a new ethno-nationalist politics that may bedevil the Republican Party—and the country—for a long time to come."[47]
-- "Trump has virtually stopped trying to win this election by any conventional metric and is instead stacking logs of grievance on the funeral pyre with the great anticipation of setting it ablaze if current polls turn out to be predictive," New York Times' columnist Charles M. Blow writes. "There is something calamitous in the air … a hostile fatalism that bespeaks a man convinced that the end is near and aiming his anger at all within reach. And [Trump] seems constitutionally incapable of processing the idea that wealth is not completely immunizing, that some rules are universally applicable, that common decency is required of more than just 'common' folks. He is the logical extension of rampant racism. He is the logical extension of wealth worship. He is the logical extension of pervasive anti-intellectualism. Trump is the logical extension of the worst of America. And the Republican Party was just the right place for him to park him self. Trump is fundamentally altering American politics — coarsening them, corrupting them, cratering them. And America … has only itself to blame. Republicans sowed intolerance and in its shadow, Trump sprang up like toxic fungi."[48]
SUNDAY SHOW HIGHLIGHTS:
-- Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani doubled down on Trump's warning of "rigged elections," insisting that Democrats are more likely to engage in voter fraud because they "control the inner cities." "I've found very few situations where Republicans cheat," Giuliani told CNN's Jake Tapper[49]. "They don't control the inner cities the way Democrats do. Maybe if Republicans controlled the inner cities, they'd do as much cheating as Democrats." He continued, without evidence: "You want me to (say) that I think the election in Philadelphia and Chicago is going to be fair? I would have to be a moron to say that."
-- Newt Gingrich claimed the media has rigged the election at a "national level." "Without the unending, one-sided assault by the news media, Trump would be ahead by 15 points," the former Speaker told Martha Raddatz on "This Week[50]."
-- Pence, again distancing himself from Trump, said that he would "absolutely accept the results of the election" as "the will of the American people." The peaceful transfer of power is a hallmark of American history," he said on CBS. (Amy B Wang[51])
-- Joe Biden said Trump's lewd comments in the 2005 video are the "textbook definition of sexual assault." He said on "Meet the Press"[52] that the remarks are believable because they point to his "instinctive abuse of power." "The vast majority of men don't share the view of [Trump] …I don't ever remember that kind of locker room talk, never," Biden said, adding that Trump "is not a guy that should be representing the United States in any way."
THE DAILY HILLARY:
-- Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren hit the campaign trail for Clinton on Sunday, appearing together for the first time in Denver as they sought to drive home the message that it is "absolutely imperative" for Trump to be defeated. (John Wagner[53])
-- Hell freezes over, cont...: Glenn Beck praised Michelle Obama's scathing takedown of Trump during her speech in New Hampshire last Thursday. He called her impassioned remarks "the most effective political speech I have heard since Ronald Reagan." (USA Today[54])
-- Tim Kaine became the first member of a national ticket to deliv er a full speech in Spanish. In his remarks, delivered at a Miami church, the Virginia senator urged parishioners to vote and emphasized the importance of political participation in a religious context. (CNN[55])
-- The Omaha World-Herald[56] endorsed Clinton, joining a chorus of traditionally-conservative publica tions in throwing their support behind the Democratic nominee. "The risk of a Donald Trump presidency is simply too great," the editorial board writes.
Clinton speaks at a fundraiser at the Paramount Theater in Seattle. (Brendan Smialowski/Getty)
-- The third and final debate is Wednesday night. "Clinton has two important challenges," Dan Balz writes
Balz flags a telling email in the WikiLeaks dump: "It came days before the New Hampshire primary that she was destined to lose to Bernie Sanders and days after she won the Iowa caucuses by a whisker. Her campaign was on its heels, principally because of widespread complaints that she had no message. The e mail was written by Joel Benenson, the campaign's chief strategist, to other senior staffers. He wrote: 'Other than what she has been doing over the last few days, do we have any sense from her what she believes or wants her core message to be?' He went on to say, 'The power of a strong message frame generally lies in a combination of simplicity and focus. . . . Sanders has simplicity and focus.' … George H.W. Bush called it, sarcastically, 'the vision thing.' But the best politicians know it and find a way to project it. Clinton has struggled throughout the campaign to do so."
-- "A newly disclosed internal email about a potential $1 million gift from the country of Qatar to the Clinton Foundation is shedding light on how the charity dealt with donations from foreign governments during [Clinton's] time as secretary of state," Rosalind S. Helderman[58] reports. "An ethics agreement with the Obama administration placed certain limits on such contributions … designed to avoid the impression that foreign governments could curry favor with the top U.S. diplomat by supporting the foundation that her husband started. But that agreement did not stop donations from foreign governments entirely. Contributions from governments that had given before Clinton took office were allowed, provided those donations did not represent substantial increases over past giving. It is not clear whether Bill Clinton ever met with the ambassador or whether the official presented the check. [But] t he newly disclosed email … gives a sense of the scale of that giving from one U.S. ally with, at times, complicated relations with the American government."
-- The mood at Clinton headquarters in Brooklyn is JOYLESS. "Clinton's final sprint has become a ... nail-gnawing slog through Trump Tower's moat of mudslinging — and the day-to-day worries of WikiLeaks' dump of internal emails," Politico's Annie Karni and Glenn Thrush[59] write. "We're winning, so you're happy," one close ally said, "but it's a toxic environment and it's sad to see."
-- The sexism Clinton faces is very real. The New Yorker's Margaret Talbot argues that, although plenty of attacks leveled against Clinton over the years have been policy oriented, much of what she has had to battle is gendered: "The conspiracy theories about the Clintons often partook of old fears and suspicions regarding women: that Hillary was a lesbian; that she was a Lady Macbeth, responsible for the murder of [Vince Foster] ... And some would not accept her as a genuine icon of female empowerment, because she had obtained her national standing as an adjunct to her husband … During Clinton's lifetime, institutionalized discrimination against women has retreated markedly. [But now], there's something both grotesque and bracing about the confrontation between Clinton, with her disciplined professionalism, and Trump, with his increasingly frenzied assertions of male prerogative. Like the female protagonist of a quest narrative—or, perhaps, of a dystopian fantasy—Clinton has made it through all her challenges to face the bull-headed Minotaur of sexism at the end of the maze."[60]
-- "In Missouri, two Democrats try to survive 'on the other side of the blue wall[61],'" by David Weigel: "Not many Democrats are endorsed by the NRA — not in 2016. The Democrat s' presidential ticket, which trails in every Missouri poll, is being buffeted by NRA ads that warn of a Clinton presidency that would yank guns from defenseless people. But down the ticket, there's [Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris] Koster. And in the race for Senate, there's Secretary of State Jason Kander, an Army veteran who blunted NRA attack ads by assembling an AR-15, blindfolded, for his own 30-second spot. Democrats no longer need Missouri to win the presidency, but they need states like Missouri to have any hope of winning Congress and state houses. And the surprisingly buoyant campaigns of Koster and Kander suggest how Democrats can compete in red America — and how a few lucky breaks may have given them a reprieve."
Trump pinatas are sold at a roadside stand in Elgin, Texas. (AP/Eric Gay)
THE DAILY DONALD:
-- Financial Times, "Trump son-in-law makes approach on post-election TV start-up[62]," by Matthew Garrahan and James Fontanella-Khan: "Jared Kushner has informally approached one of the media industry's top dealmakers about the prospect of setting up a Trump television network after the presidential election in November. Mr Kushner … contacted Aryeh Bourkoff, the founder and chief executive of LionTree, a boutique investment bank, within the past couple of months … Their conversati on was brief and has not progressed since … However, the approach suggests Mr Kushner and the Republican candidate himself are thinking about how to capitalise on the populist movement that has sprung up around their campaign in the event of an election defeat to [Clinton] next month. Mr Bourkoff … has advised on transactions worth more than $300bn, including Liberty Global's $23.3bn acquisition of Virgin Media and Verizon's $4.4bn takeover of AOL." He's also a friend of Kushner, and the two have worked together in the past. (Trump has previously dismissed the idea of starting his own channel, telling The Post last month that he has "no interest" in launching such a venture.)
-- Inefficient fundraising: Trump and the Republican National Committee are spending bigly to expand their small-dollar donor apparatus, Matea Gold and Anu Narayanswamy report[63]: "The committee that collects low-dollar contributions for Trump's presidential campaign and the RNC raced through more than one-third of the $150 million it raised in the last quarter, spending $55 million to send direct mail, rent donor lists and manage its data, according to FEC reports. "The committee spent a whopping $26 million on direct mail printing and postage. Another $11.2 million went to rent donor lists. And nearly $1.5 million was spent on telemarketing. And though Trump's joint fundraising committee … spent nearly $60 million on operating expenses last quarter – roughly the same as Clinton's joint fundraising account – Clinton's camp pulled in 40 percent more t han Trump's. Altogether, Trump Victory raised $61.3 million between June and September from donors who gave as much as $449,000 a piece."
-- Linda McMahon donated $6 million to the pro-Trump super PAC Rebuilding America Now, footing nearly one-third of the group's $18 million haul last quarter. The latest donations make the WWE co-founder and former Republican Senate candidate one of the GOP presidential nominee's biggest outside benefactors, Matea Gold writes -- a surprising development since she has been publicly critical of his rhetoric in the past. During the GOP primaries this spring, she told Katie Couric that she was offended by Trump's disparaging comments of women, calling them "deplorable."[64]
-- Five big Republican donors poured at least $24 million into groups backing Trump in recent months. From the Wall Street Journal's Rebecca Ballhaus[65]: "Billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam, donated $10 million to Future45, a super PAC backing Mr. Trump that said it planned to attack Mrs. Clinton in battleground states. Joe Ricketts … contributed another $1 million to the super PAC … [and] Bernie Marcus, the billionaire co-founder of Home Depot, gave $5 million to a second pro-Trump group, called Rebuilding America Now," while poultry magnate Ronald Cameron also donated another $2 million to the group.
-- Peter Thiel, the founder of PayPal, is donating another $1.25 million to support Trump. The Silicon Valley entrepreneur also funded the lawsuit that destroyed Gawker. (New York Times[66])
-- Meanwhile, while money goes to the presidential, Republicans are set to be massively outspent on TV ads in seven of the eight states that are likely to decide control of the Senate, Politico tabulates[67].
-- A progressive advocacy group is launching an advertising campaign against Mike Pence, accusing the Indiana governor of allowing voter suppression after state police raided the offices of a voter registration program aimed at signing up African Americans. The group, Patriot Majority USA, estimates that up to 45,000 people – most of them African Americans -- might not be able to vote next month if investigators put a hold on applications collected by the group during its investigation. A spokesman for Pence dismissed the allegations as "completely false and beyond absurd." (Vanessa Williams[68])
-- Trump held a Hindu-American rally in New Jersey this weekend, pitching himself as a "big fan of Hindus" and India and promising that, should he win the presidency, the two nations would be "best friends." "There won't be any relationship more important to us," the Republican nominee pledged to the crowd. (Max Bearak[69])
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